The rapidly evolving situation with COVID-19 is raising questions throughout the Africa. As concerns continue to grow about the virus, it is not only wreaking havoc on the stock market, it is causing a significant downturn in the general economy.But, what about agriculture?Mark Stephenson and John Shutske with the University of Wisconsin-Madison say there are six specific things farmers, farm families, agricultural employers, and employees need to be aware of and plan for.Concerns about the impact of the virus on the broader economy are likely to have an even larger impact on food prices. Many countries of the Africa Union were already hovering just above a recession prior to the viral outbreak and this event is likely to push them over the edge. Prior to this event, China was also experiencing slower economic growth. The U.S. has enjoyed strength in the economy, but there have been leading indicators prior to pandemic concerns that suggested that we were past the peak of the business cycle and that an economic slowdown, or perhaps that a recession was coming. A worldwide recession, like the one experienced in 2008-09, would push the previously expected food price recovery off for at least another year.The Nigerian agricultural value chain, like many other Africa countries, is dominated by smallholders. Primary production, which has the largest percentage of actors along the chain, receives minimal investment, and is mostly carried out by family farmers in rural areas. Processing and distribution, on the other hand, are undertaken by a few large firms in small towns and cities. However, the majority of processors and distributors still depend on primary producers for raw materials.With the current inter-state ban and movement restrictions in the country, the smooth flow of raw materials from the producers to the processors and distributors has been truncated, putting both producers and consumers in a difficult position.
The resultant effects are a glut of some products, and increased losses of perishable commodities where there are inadequate storage facilities panic-buying by consumers, and disrupted operations for agribusiness enterprises in the cities, are on the rise.
Impacts COVID-19 could have on farming
1. Markets and farm prices. As we see growing levels of concern, recommendations for social distancing, reduced travel, avoiding crowds, closures, and other protective practices to slow the spread of COVID-19, consumers will be making tough choices about food, eating away from home, and overall spending.
Wet maize is prominently featured in out-of-home eating, and there may be some disruptions in food service sales. This will likely have an impact on markets and prices. There have also been bottlenecks at the land borders in other countries as there are restrictions on imported commodities with African countries. The Nigerian borders has shut down trading of all products until “further notice,” though this is a welcome development to local farmers as commodities imported affects the prices and profitability of home grown crops.
2. Supply chains slowdows and shortages. As logistics are disrupted and efforts proceed to slow the spread of the virus, multiple connected industry sectors are already being impacted. With some products, “panic buying” is creating additional concern. As an example of supply chain interruptions on farms, Nigerian farmers are finding it hard to get easy access to agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and so on..their are shortage due to non-easy access to basic farm inputs by rural farmer’s in Nigeria due to logistics reason caused by the inter-state movement of non consumable farm inputs essential to farmers. If the virus were to spread more broadly in an agricultural state like Oyo, we could see issues with farm product delivery and pickup as workers – farm produce truck drivers for example – stay home due to illness or because they are caring for family members or school-age children. These same concerns would affect processors. Slowdowns could also impact fertilizer, fuel and other input movement and availability as we head toward spring. In an extreme case, we could have concerns with utilities – electricity, natural gas, propane – based on input availability or labor shortages. However, utility companies generally do a good job of contingency planning which helps buffer the impact of unforeseen events.
3. Farmers’ health. Throughout the Midwest, farmers are a relatively older population, as compared to the general worker population. The average age of a farmer in Nigeria today is 60 years. For a crop that is highly labour-intensive. Data from other countries that have done more extensive testing suggest that COVID-19 has a much higher level of severity for those in their 60s and older, meaning that preventive and protective recommendations from the federal government and state (and local) public health experts are critical for our farming population.
4. The farm workforce. Even if the general population infection rate remains relatively low, it is likely that we will see some workers who end up sick. But, perhaps more importantly, even if the infection rate stays low (single digits), it is highly likely that workers will need to be out of work particularly with school closures and/or workers who need to stay home to care for sick or elderly family members. The fear of this event and lack of information may also lead to higher levels of absenteeism.
5. Worker safety and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). There are shortages of PPE and other protective equipment vital for operating a farm safely and keeping workers and animals healthy. As a result of the current demands by the healthcare industry, N-95 respirator supplies are highly limited (likely to be needed this spring for handling dusty grain as a result of last fall’s sub-optimal harvest conditions though the gorverment has ordered the production of locally made face mask but the big question is “are they safe and effective”). There are also reported concerns about availability of protective gloves which have now become commonplace in livestock operations as a protective means to improve livestock quality and protect the health of animals and people.
6. Other disruptions. Sparse populations and less frequent travel may provide a natural social distancing for rural communities but there are challenges that may be faced by rural residents. Many gathering places, such as schools and churches, are being closed and told to halt normal routines and events. As a substitute, in some areas and for high school and college students, classes and services are being taught online. This may be difficult for some rural residents as high-speed internet service is not available in some areas of the state including some of our communities with a strong agricultural base.
Only time will reveal the severity of the impacts on agriculture from the novel coronavirus. They urge you to take reasonable precautions to limit the spread of the disease and its influence on your businesses and lives. Both say hoarding of farm supplies is not recommended and could cause even greater problems for the sector and that prudent purchases of necessary inputs might minimize disruptions to your business. Please keep informed, listen to the experts, and follow the recommendations of federal, state, and local agencies and authorities.Currently, farmers in Nigeria are lamenting the lack of markets for their harvested products, and the possibility of missing out on the production season this year as a result of quarantine measures. It is imperative to support these poor communities with resources that support increased and better agricultural production.
Should this pandemic continue beyond what has been anticipated, smallholder farmers who constitute the majority of the agricultural sector and who also have little or no access to inputs or logistics to maneuver smoothly, especially during this pandemic, will be affected.
Lastly a wake up call to all young agripreneurs, we must reach out for Multi-stakeholder collaboration and link up Multi-stakeholder collaboration through the use of e-commerce in other to safe this country from the impending Doom of food crises.
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